United States Macroeconomic Conditions

How to Read This Chart: EFFR (Sky Blue line) is the Effective Federal Funds Rate—the volume-weighted median rate US depository institutions charge each other for overnight unsecured loans. Target Upper / Lower (Slate dotted lines) and shaded band mark the official Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy corridor (e.g. 3.75% – 4.00%). The Fed steers the EFFR within this corridor using administered interest on reserve balances. SOFR (Emerald line) is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, tracking broad Treasury repo borrowing costs (the benchmark replacement for USD LIBOR). 2.0% Policy Anchor (Red dashed line) represents the Federal Reserve statutory inflation mandate that anchors all policy rate setting.

How to Read This Chart: Maturity Term (X-Axis) spans short-term paper (1M–1Y bills), intermediate debt (2Y–10Y notes), and long bonds (20Y–30Y). Current Curve (Emerald line & markers) captures today's yields. 1 Month Ago (Sky Blue dashed line) tracks near-term rate repricing. 1 Year Ago (Amber dotted line) shows the historical shift from deep inversion toward normalization. An upward-sloping curve is standard; an inverted curve (short rates higher than long rates) historically precedes economic recessions.

How to Read This Chart: 10Y Yield (Sky Blue line) is the benchmark long-term risk-free rate governing 30-year mortgages and equity discount rates. 2Y Yield (Amber line) tracks anticipated Fed policy actions over the next 24 months. 10Y-2Y Spread (Emerald line, right axis) equals 10Y yield minus 2Y yield in basis points. When the spread falls below 0 bps (inversion), banks face compressed lending margins; every US recession over the past 50 years followed a yield curve inversion.

How to Read This Chart: Cumulative View (Default): Illustrates the compounded rise in consumer living costs from the 2016 baseline (0%). Even when annual inflation slows, cumulative prices remain elevated. Headline CPI (Amber line) tracks total compound price rise across the full consumer basket (+42.2% over 10 years). Core CPI (Purple line) strips out Food & Energy to measure persistent compound price growth (+38.8%). Fed 2.0% Compounded Target (Red dashed line) represents where prices would be if the Fed had maintained its exact 2% annual inflation mandate (+23.3%). The gap illustrates the excess price surge.

How to Read This Chart: U-3 Headline (Sky Blue line) is the official unemployment rate—the percentage of the active labor force seeking employment without a job. U-6 Total Underemployment (Amber line) is the broadest measure of labor slack: includes U-3 plus "discouraged workers" who ceased searching, marginally attached jobseekers, and involuntary part-time employees who desire full-time work. Labor Force Participation (Emerald line, right axis) tracks the civilian workforce as a share of the adult population.

How to Read This Chart: Net Jobs Added (Green/Red bars, left axis) tracks monthly net establishment job creation in thousands of workers (green = job additions, red = net workforce contraction). Wage Growth YoY (Sky Blue line, right axis) measures Average Hourly Earnings growth across all private sector employees. Sustained wage gains above ~3.5%–4.0% are watched closely by the Fed for signs of wage-push inflation. 2.0% Inflation Anchor (Red dashed line, right axis) represents the threshold for real household purchasing power gains. Wage growth above 2.0% produces positive real earnings expansion.